By: Nnali A. Omezue
Pages: 384–406, Volume: 3, Number: 1
Published by: AEFUNAI Journal of Economics, Finance and Development Studies, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, 2/1/2026, 2026
ISSN (Electronic): 2536-6742
DOI:
International Trade and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from ARDL Approach
Abstract:
This study examined the impact of international trade and institutional quality on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2024. Against the backdrop of oil-price volatility and rising import dependence, it assessed how trade openness, export diversification, and institutional stability influence economic performance. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test revealed a mix of I(0) and I(1) variables, justifying the use of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to analyse both long-run and short-run relationships, complemented by an Error Correction Model (ECM). The results confirm a stable long-run relationship, with about 58.5% of short-run disequilibrium corrected annually. Institutional quality, trade openness, and export diversification were found to be positive and significant drivers of growth, while the exchange rate had a significant negative impact. The study recommends institutional reforms to enhance trade competitiveness.
Keywords: Trade openness, Economic growth, ARDL, Trade liberalization, Nigeria
How to Cite
Omezue, N. A. (2026). International Trade and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from ARDL Approach. AEFUNAI Journal of Economics, Finance and Development Studies (AEFUNAI-JEFDS), Vol. 3(1), 384–406.
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)
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