Infrastructure, Trade Expansion, and Inclusive Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from ARDL Analysis

By: Gbenro Matthew Sokunbi

Pages: 223–242, Volume: 3, Number: 1

Published by: AEFUNAI Journal of Economics, Finance and Development Studies, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, 2/1/2026, 2026

ISSN (Electronic): 2536-6742

DOI:

Infrastructure, Trade Expansion, and Inclusive Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from ARDL Analysis

Abstract:

Despite Nigeria’s significant economic size, growth has not consistently translated into broad-based welfare improvements due to persistent poverty, inequality, and sectoral imbalances. This study investigates the role of infrastructural development, disaggregated into transport, energy, and ICT, in fostering trade expansion and promoting inclusive growth in Nigeria. Using annual data from 1995 to 2024 and applying an ARDL modeling framework, the analysis uncovers a stable long-run relationship among infrastructure investment, trade openness, macroeconomic stability, and economic growth. The findings indicate that infrastructure-led trade expansion significantly contributes to growth; however, its ability to generate inclusive outcomes is contingent on sectoral composition, spatial distribution, and the alignment of trade policies with domestic productive capabilities.

Keywords: Infrastructure, International trade, Inclusive growth, Connectivity, Economic development